Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.018887 0.021396 0.024116 0.027288 0.030884 0.034836 0.039512
2025-08-03 0.014681 0.018070 0.022063 0.027118 0.033356 0.040809 0.050407
2025-08-10 0.012395 0.016147 0.020825 0.027094 0.035291 0.045666 0.059831
2025-08-17 0.010611 0.014476 0.019524 0.026611 0.036326 0.049217 0.067685
2025-08-24 0.009528 0.013531 0.018973 0.026926 0.038291 0.054003 0.077479
2025-08-31 0.008505 0.012518 0.018171 0.026736 0.039437 0.057653 0.085914
2025-09-07 0.007890 0.012000 0.017981 0.027350 0.041721 0.063042 0.097290
2025-09-14 0.006986 0.010947 0.016887 0.026476 0.041651 0.064875 0.103384
2025-09-21 0.006343 0.010222 0.016204 0.026139 0.042327 0.067834 0.111415
2025-09-28 0.005686 0.009406 0.015296 0.025342 0.042163 0.069404 0.117276
2025-10-05 0.005478 0.009296 0.015494 0.026344 0.045000 0.076023 0.132057
2025-10-12 0.005221 0.009074 0.015484 0.026981 0.047256 0.081834 0.145938
2025-10-19 0.005000 0.008903 0.015554 0.027783 0.049903 0.088603 0.162259
2025-10-26 0.004632 0.008442 0.015087 0.027598 0.050789 0.092368 0.173537
2025-11-02 0.004328 0.008065 0.014732 0.027574 0.051946 0.096686 0.186189
2025-11-09 0.003987 0.007590 0.014156 0.027081 0.052173 0.099287 0.195777
2025-11-16 0.003788 0.007365 0.014019 0.027402 0.053963 0.104957 0.211824
2025-11-23 0.003542 0.007025 0.013636 0.027209 0.054725 0.108689 0.224316
2025-11-30 0.003415 0.006907 0.013668 0.027834 0.057158 0.115895 0.244533
2025-12-07 0.003126 0.006441 0.012981 0.026945 0.056427 0.116663 0.251332
2025-12-14 0.002922 0.006131 0.012577 0.026602 0.056792 0.119687 0.263186
2025-12-21 0.002687 0.005738 0.011975 0.025790 0.056088 0.120405 0.270048
2025-12-28 0.002647 0.005754 0.012220 0.026810 0.059425 0.130003 0.297545